Pakistan-Saudi Defense Treaty.

The Saudi-Pakistan Treaty: An Increasing Strategic Partnership That Concerns Washington and Tel Aviv Overview

Both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are celebrating the recently signed treaty as a historic turning point. The agreement, which is based on defense, economic cooperation, and energy security, shows how Riyadh and Islamabad are becoming closer. Beyond the festivities in the Gulf and South Asia, however, this development has caused increasing anxiety in Tel Aviv and Washington.

The treaty puts the United States' already waning influence in the Middle East and South Asia in jeopardy. The agreement creates new challenges for Israel as it works toward regional security and normalization. In actuality, what appears to be a bilateral cooperation agreement could change the Middle East's future, challenge the dominance of Western powers, and upset the balance of power.

A Profound Historical Collaboration Resurrected

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have had strong religious, cultural, and geopolitical ties for a long time. While Pakistan has supplied the Kingdom with military personnel, skilled labor, and defense expertise, Riyadh has frequently stepped in to save Islamabad during financial crises. The alliance peaked when both nations, supported by the United States, banded together to oppose Soviet expansion during the Cold War and the war in Afghanistan.

Tensions have arisen recently, especially since Pakistan declined to take part in the Saudi-led conflict in Yemen. But this new agreement represents a clear start, indicating that Riyadh is prepared to make significant investments in Pakistan and that Islamabad is prepared to re-align with its Gulf ally.

However, the more profound query is: who is paying for this renaissance?

Important Aspects of the Treaty

Four main areas are covered by the Saudi-Pakistan treaty, according to diplomatic insiders:

Defense Cooperation

Pakistan's military presence in Saudi Arabia is growing.

Cooperation in intelligence, joint training, and possible sharing of defense technology.

Financial Investments

Saudi Arabia promises to invest billions in Pakistani energy, infrastructure, and agricultural projects.

Beijing's influence is strengthened by strategic investments connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Security of Energy

• Long-term, discounted oil supply to Pakistan.
• Agreements on the development of renewable energy.
• Employment and Labor
• Increased rights for Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia.
• Benefits for Pakistan
• Economic lifeline: Saudi investments offer prompt respite during a financial crisis.
• Energy stability: The pressure on foreign reserves is lessened by concessional oil deals.
• Pakistan's significance in Gulf politics is reaffirmed by its diplomatic prestige.
• Military significance: Enhances its position as a key Middle Eastern actor.
• The Strategic Gains of Saudi Arabia
• Dependable defense assistance from Pakistan's nuclear-capable and military capabilities.
• Skilled labor for the massive projects of Vision 2030.
• By firmly placing a Sunni-majority country with nuclear weapons within its sphere of influence.
• Alliances outside of the United States.
• The American Dilemma: Declining Power
• This treaty is a risky trend for Washington.
• Loss of American Domination

Saudi Arabia has long been the United States' closest Gulf ally.

America runs the risk of simultaneously losing influence in South Asia and the Gulf as a result of Riyadh's significant investments in Pakistan, which are frequently linked to Chinese projects.

The Dollar System is under threat.

The dominance of the U.S. dollar in international energy trade is directly threatened if Saudi oil exports to Pakistan switch to alternative currencies like the Chinese Yuan or a Riyal–Rupee settlement.

Security Issues

Given Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, the U.S. is extremely concerned about its defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia. In Washington, any suggestion of technology transfer would cause concern.

Competition in Geopolitics

America's strategy to restrain Beijing's rise in Asia and the Middle East is directly undermined by a Saudi-Pakistan axis that may be in line with China.

The Strategic Concern of Israel

The treaty is equally troubling for Israel.

Normalization Failure

With support from the United States, Israel had been slowly normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. This process is made more difficult by the reformed Saudi-Pakistani alliance.

Pakistan continues to be an outspoken advocate for Palestine and has never recognized Israel. The Kingdom has less leeway toward Tel Aviv now that Islamabad is nearer Riyadh.

Military Issues

Israel is concerned that Saudi Arabia's access to Pakistani military know-how may tip the scales of power in the region, particularly in situations involving Iran or the larger Middle East conflict.

The Palestinian Aspect

Saudi Arabia's reluctance to fully embrace Israel diplomatically may be strengthened by Pakistan's uncompromising position on Palestine. In some Arab and Muslim countries, this furthers Tel Aviv's isolation.

Formation of Regional Blocs

Israel would be less able to control regional security narratives if Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and perhaps Turkey formed a Sunni bloc.

Regional and Worldwide Reactions

Iran: The treaty is viewed by Tehran as an effort to create a Sunni alliance against Iran.

India: Despite having close relations with Riyadh, New Delhi is concerned that its relative standing in the Gulf is being weakened by closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

China: Seeing the treaty as a confirmation of its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing quietly celebrates it.

Europe: The EU is cautious of any disruptions that might cause oil prices to rise and is looking at the agreement through an energy lens.

The Increasing Risks to Tel Aviv and Washington

The agreement presents America and Israel with a strategic challenge rather than just an economic one:

For the United States:

• Declining power to set conditions in the Gulf.
• Saudi investments in Pakistan have increased Chinese influence.
• Danger of the petrodollar being replaced by other financial systems.

Regarding Israel:

• Saudi opposition to expedited normalization.
• Indirect improvement of Palestine's diplomatic standing.
• Military ambiguity in the event of regional escalation.
• Implementation Difficulties
• Despite its importance, the treaty has obstacles:
• Saudi Arabia needs to strike a balance between autonomous decision-making and American expectations.
• Pakistan needs to make sure that pledges are followed by real investments.
• Lobbying by the US and Israel may try to impede or weaken delicate defense cooperation.

In conclusion

The Saudi-Pakistan treaty is a geopolitical declaration rather than merely another bilateral pact. It demonstrates Riyadh's resolve to broaden its coalitions beyond Washington and Islamabad's attempt to regain prominence in international affairs.

However, the agreement presents a new challenge for Israel and the United States: a changing Middle East where preconceived notions are no longer valid and where new alliances may undermine their hegemony. Washington and Tel Aviv look on uneasily as Riyadh and Islamabad celebrate, knowing that the world chessboard is shifting against them.